Some thoughts on Hausfather et al.

I like the Hausfather paper on sea-surface temperature data sets, not so much for what it says about the slowdown in warming (I don’t think it does say much about that) but for what it has to tell us about our understanding of sea-surface temperature change in general. Although, the Hausfather paper focuses on discrepancies between data sets, it underlines a rather surprising point that we often take for granted. Continue reading

Wiggles

uncertainty_wiggle_anim.gif

HadCRUT4 data download page

There are many ways to look at global temperatures. Here’s another, which wiggles.

There are already some, rather more coherent thoughts on this plot by Michael de Podesta and Victor Venema.

The wiggles are intended to express our uncertainty about past climate. They show different ways that the past evolution of global temperature might have been, taking into account what we know (or think we know) about likely residual errors in the data.

There are always errors in data and measurements and part of the job of the scientist (this scientist at least) is to try and adequately quantify and characterise the likely range of those errors.

The grey area in the diagram shows the envelope in which we think global temperatures are likely to have been contained over the past 166 years or so. The width of the grey area has been estimated such that we’d expect the true global temperature to have been outside that grey area only a handful of times through that period. The grey area represents the compounded effects of errors associated with the measurements, residual errors associated with instrumentation changes and limited coverage.

“Expect” is one of those magic words that scientists and mathematicians imbue with a deeper meaning than most people give it. The wiggling graph is partly my attempt to show what the expectations look like.

You see, the grey area is only part of the story. It’s not the case that the true global temperature could have taken just any path through that range (with occasional forays outside). What we know about the kinds of errors there are in the data constrains the possibilities. The wiggling blue shows how we think a subset of those residual errors behaves.

The errors represented by the blue line are: measurement errors, residual errors associated with instrumentation changes and the effects of limited sampling in the individual map cells that make up the HadCRUT4 data set. The blue line does not take into account errors associated with limited sampling on a larger scale. We can estimate the magnitude of that (and it’s included in the gray shading), but we don’t yet have a very good idea of how those errors correlate in time: we know how far it wiggles, but not the tune to which it dances.

So, how was the graph put together?

First I took the HadCRUT4 ensemble (there’s a link at the top of the post). This collection of 100 data sets represents uncertainties associated with residual errors coming from instrumentation changes, station moves and so on. The errors associated with these tend to vary quite slowly in time, they cause whole segments of the blue line to rise and fall together.

To each of the 100 ensemble members, I then added an extra contribution drawn from a normal distribution with a standard deviation equal to the estimated uncertainty arising from other measurement errors and limited sampling in the individual map cells, which is also provided in the files. I approximated this as having no dependency in time, which isn’t quite correct.

I then play the 100 graphs in a  loop with a single interpolation step between each one to smooth out the transitions.

Things to note:

  1. the most recent 15 or so years tends to move as a block. There’s a large contribution in this period from residual errors due to instrumentation changes, largely arising from residual errors in the ocean part of the analysis. This can seem counterintuitive because large numbers of observations in this period are from more reliable drifting buoys. The reason is that we express the global temperature as a temperature difference from the period 1961-1990 which is dominated by less-reliable ship data. The ensemble is constrained to have an average of about zero through the 1961-1990 period, so any uncertainty during that time gets squeezed out of that period and into the rest of the time series
  2. You can see this squeezing at work if the blue line jigs upwards at the end of the 1961-1990 period, it has to jog downwards at the other end.
  3. The 19th century is a lot more jagged and jumpy. This is because of the relatively larger contribution from the errors with no time dependency, reflecting the far smaller number of measurements we have access to during this period.

The graph is work in progress.

It’s intended to try out a new (to me) way of presenting global temperatures. Feedback has so far been positive, but I’m always keen to hear constructive criticism. Criticism of other types is welcomed too, but won’t so easily lead to improvements and there’s  a small chance it will make me sad.

At the moment, there are some approximations that can be improved on with a moderate amount of work. These include things like the way that temporal dependence is modelled. It should also be possible with a less moderate amount of work to include all the known uncertainty terms including the large scale sampling.

But there’s also a more fundamental problem which is this: the global time series has these error in it. To make the dancing line, I make an estimate of what the errors are and add them to the series. In effect each of the blue lines has a double dose of error: the error that’s actually in it and the error I’ve added. A better way to do this would be to assimilate the data into a statistical model of global temperatures and then draw samples from that, but that, as they say, is another story…

Life just goes on

I’ve been staring intently at this diagram (from Evidence for a limit to human lifespan) for a while now, particularly panel b. Panel b shows linear regressions of the logarithm of the number of survivors per 100,000 people at different ages from 70 up to 110. Each coloured line represents a linear regression for a particular age, with the colours indicating roughly what age that is.

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I’ve been trying to make my own version of this diagram from data in the Human Mortality Database. I’m not sure if

(a) I have the correct file (fltper_1x1.txt) or

(b) whether I have the correct column in that file (lx) and then

(c) even assuming I do have the correct file and column, I’m not clear exactly how to do the linear regressions because for some of the more advanced ages, there are no survivors per 100,000 people early on in the 20th century and zero doesn’t log very well.

However, in mulling and intently staring, I noticed that something odd is happening in panel (b): the lines cross. One might interpret that as meaning that at some point before 1920, you were more likely to live out the year if you were 110 than if you were 105 which seems unlikely. Another way to think about it is that linear-regression might not be the best way to represent this data.

A simpler problem is to look only at the period from 1980, during which the data are non-zero in all age ranges given in the data set. With the caveat that I’m not sure if I’m looking in the right file, the pattern I see looks like this.

 

figure_1-1

Log (base 10) of the number of survivors per 100,000 people as function of year. The age corresponding to each line is shown on the right hand side with alternating colours so that it’s easier to work out which line matches which number. The wiggly line for each age are the data and the straight line is linear fit to that data.

 

There are two lines for each age. One is wiggly and that’s the log of the data values that came out of the file. The other is straight and is the linear regression of that same logged data. The gradient of the lines increases with increasing age over this period, which, on the face of it would contradict the claim made in the paper that somehow the rate of change shows diminishing gains at the higher end of the age range.

Behind the face of it, there are some caveats that need to be considered. First, the data are heterogeneous. Since 2005, the input data on numbers of deaths lumps all deaths at ages of 105 and up together. Before 2005, deaths are recorded at each age all the way up to 124. There’s a change in the way the input data are presented at that point at that point.

Second, a series of calculations (making a range of necessary assumptions) are performed on the data to convert the reports of births, deaths and censuses into a consistent format and to derive the statistic I plotted – survivors per 100,000 at age x. What effect these assumptions and calculations have, particularly at the very upper end of the age range where individual deaths can make quite a difference, isn’t clear to me.

What this means for the analysis in the paper, I don’t know. It might, of course, mean nothing. This process of learning about how the data were gathered and processed and just what exactly they mean, is always an interesting  aspect of exploring new datasets. It does however, confirm my initial concern about the heterogeneous nature of the data and it’s the kind of detail I’d like to have seen explored in the manuscript.

 

More on life

death

I spent a little more time looking at the data from the paper on “Evidence for a limit to human lifespan“. This figure is the result. The data are available upon registration from http://www.supercentenarians.org/

(a) shows the Maximum Reported Age at Death (MRAD) for four countries (France, UK, USA, Japan). The blue squares show the age of the oldest person who died each year as represented in the available data from those countries. The data base only has this information for people whose age at death was 110 or higher so I’ve indicated those years where there are no data with red lines. I’ve marked the earliest and latest entry for each country too. Only the UK data go back to 1968. The French and US data stop in 2003 and Japan in 2005.

(b)-(d) show the Maximum Reported Age at Death (MRAD) the 2nd highest reported Age at Death (2RAD) and the third in various colours. All the other data points from the four countries are shown in grey.

(e) shows the annual average age at death from the data already described. years with no data are shown in red.

(f)inally, the totalled number of entries per year in the database from the four countries (France, UK, USA, Japan) are shown as blue dots.

What if anything do these plots tell us? I’m not sure really. I was concerned that the missing data in (a) would affect the regressions (not that the regressions would be especially meaningful even if performed correctly). Ordinary Least Squares fits to the blue dots, ignoring the missing years yield the values shown in the original paper. I was informed by a proper statistician that there are standard techniques for working with missing data but it would appear that either they weren’t applied, or they give the same answer as OLS too a few d.p.

Second, the number of entries each year varies a lot and which of the four countries are contributing at the same time also does. This is likely to affect both (a) and (e). In particular, the first several and the very last (2006) data points are based only the UK data. This shift between a mix of countries with different age distributions might have had an effect on the shapes of the time series shown here. That’s particularly obvious for (e) which was Fig 2c in the original paper. The cubic spline smoothed series had a sort of double peak and the earlier peak was based on the small number of UK entries probably with no allowance for the missing data in that earlier period.

Third, I’m not sure quite why these four countries were chosen. Other countries – Spain and Italy were two I looked at – have longish datasets which weren’t used. They don’t add masses of data, but it’s not clear what the selection criteria was.

Anyway, the data seem to be more heterogeneous than I had initially thought and the problems with Figure 2 are somewhat deeper than I’d thought.

 

 

 

The length of life

This is a slight departure, being a sort of review of (grumble about) a paper that appeared in Nature recently (Evidence for a limit to human lifespan) but is not at all related to weather or climate. It’s about how long people can live and the authors claim that their results “strongly suggest that the maximum lifespan of humans is fixed and subject to natural constraints”.

Continue reading

The non-Paradox of Consensus

This essay has appeared, or reappeared; it looks like it was first published some years ago. It concludes, paradoxically:

“In our view, the fact that so many scientists agree so closely about the earth’s warming is, itself, evidence of a lack of evidence for global warming.”

The argument that leads to this conclusion is not clearly laid out and verges on complete incoherence. Nevertheless, some people seem to find it meaningful, so I thought I would look at it in more detail.

Continue reading

Six of one; half a dozen of the other

Occasionally, I see it stated that averaging of repeated measurements only reduces the uncertainty if they are repeated measurements of the same thing.

This is simply not true.

It is, however, a good place to start thinking about the general problem. If we take three measurements of (say) the temperature of a water bath M1, M2 and M3, the average is (M1+M2+M3)/3.

Continue reading

November 2015

Globally speaking, November was a warm month, at least for a November. GISTEMP, NOAAGlobalTemp and HadCRUT4 all have November as the warmest November on record nominally. Part of the warmth, at least the part that distinguishes it form 2014, say, is likely due to the El Nino that matured mid-year. There are various estimates of the effect that El Nino has on monthly temperatures (directly because the El Nino region is rather large and part of the surface and indirectly because El Nino warms other areas with some lag) but are around a tenth of a degree or so. Continue reading